Por Lincoln Diaz-Balart, analista republicano para Univision Noticias, abogado y consultor (*)
Anoche, en Las Vegas, se celebró otro debate entre los precandidatos Republicanos a la presidencia de Estados Unidos. En febrero comenzarán los “caucuses” y las primarias que escogerán a los delegados que elegirán al candidato presidencial.
En las encuestas, Donald Trump sigue en primer lugar, excepto en el estado de Iowa, donde el Senador Ted Cruz lo ha superado. Trump ha estado en primer lugar durante meses. Yo nunca pensé que lo estaría por tanto tiempo.
En el debate de anoche, el ex-Gobernador Jeb Bush confrontó a Trump directamente. “No vas a poder llegar a la presidencia a través de los insultos, Donald”, le espetó. Jeb Bush tuvo su mejor debate hasta ahora. Reiteró que Trump no es un candidato serio, y se pudo ver que él, Jeb, sí lo es.
Cuando pasen las Navidades y las fiestas de fin de año, y el electorado verdaderamente comience a prestarle atención a la críticamente importante decisión que tendrá que tomar en 2016, tengo esperanza que entienda la importancia del expediente de logros extraordinarios en la Florida de Jeb Bush, y se dé cuenta de que es un hombre con el temperamento y el carácter para ser un gran Presidente.
Los Senadores Marco Rubio y Ted Cruz, ambos extremadamente elocuentes, tuvieron un gran debate anoche.
Como ya mencioné, Ted Cruz ha sobrepasado a Donald Trump en las encuestas de Iowa. Está heredando los votantes del Dr. Ben Carson, cuya fuerza electoral continua declinando. Ted Cruz se enfocó en atacar a Marco Rubio, como también lo hizo el “Libertario”, Rand Paul. Pero los ataques de Paul y Cruz tuvieron el efecto de darle más tiempo para explicar sus posiciones al Senador Rubio, y este se lució. Pudo demostrar su profundo conocimiento de la problemática del Medio Oriente.
El mayor ataque de Ted Cruz contra Marco Rubio consiste en que el Senador Rubio trabajó de forma bipartidista durante la redacción del proyecto de ley de la reforma de inmigración que fue aprobado por el Senado. Irónicamente, esa capacidad de trabajar de forma bipartidista, le sería altamente beneficiosa en la elección general, si obtiene la nominación del partido.
Los ataques del Senador Cruz fueron fortísimos anoche, y es posible que continúe subiendo en las encuestas en las primarias Republicanas. El gran problema inherente en su estrategia es que le hará difícil la obtención de votos “independientes”, del “centro” del espectro político, en la elección general de noviembre, si obtiene la nominación del partido.
En agosto pasado, antes del primer debate, escribí, “Los candidatos con expedientes de servicio público y programas de gobierno serios para ofrecer a los electores en 2016 confrontarán dos importantes retos en los próximos meses: Primero, superar el “Factor Trump”. Y segundo, hacerse escuchar entre la pequeña multitud de opciones presidenciales Republicanas”.
Los candidatos que he mencionado han logrado hacerse escuchar, pero el “Factor Trump” todavía no ha sido superado.
Hoy, 16 de diciembre de 2015, sigo sin poder visualizar a Donald Trump como el candidato Republicano a la presidencia. Reconozco que muchos votantes ven en él un contraste con la debilidad de Estados Unidos que personifica el Presidente Obama. Pero creo que, si fuese el candidato, Donald Trump sería extremadamente dañino para el Partido Republicano. No solo ganarían los Demócratas la presidencia, sino que el Partido Republicano pudiera perder la mayoría en el Senado, y hasta en la Cámara de Representantes.
(*) Fue representante federal por la Florida entre 1993 y 2011.
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